The Unwind
Reference: SMH, the VanEck semiconductor ETF — the AI-chip complex UNW shorts. UNW is built to profit when this rolls over, not while it climbs.
The view.
The AI and semiconductor complex has run on a historic re-rating. UNW expresses the view that it is due for a major drawdown — and packages that thesis as a single, defined-risk line a trader can actually hold.
The short basket isn't hand-picked. It mirrors the megacap AI-chip and hyperscaler names that the most sophisticated AI-focused funds are themselves positioned against — read from disclosed SEC 13F filings. You're expressing the smart-money unwind, not a hunch.
How it works.
Four mechanicsSmart-money short basket
A basket of the AI-chip & hyperscaler complex, weighted to disclosed institutional put-positioning rather than market cap.
Defined-risk options
Expressed through put structures, never a linear short. Maximum loss is the premium — you can be early and survive it.
Trigger-gated activation
A quantitative regime trigger (trend break confirmed by credit & volatility) decides when the position is on. It stays flat through melt-ups — it does not fight the bull.
Regime-aware hedge leg
The long leg adapts to whether the unwind is deflationary (duration, gold) or inflationary (commodities, USD).
The position.
Reconstituted each 13F cycleShort — the froth basket
Defined-risk put structures, weighted to disclosed institutional put-conviction (latest 13F). Not a linear short.
Long — the hedge leg
Regime-aware, and only active when the trigger fires. Flat through melt-ups.
- Deflationary unwindLong-duration Treasuries · gold · long-volatility
- Inflationary unwindBroad commodities · oil · US dollar
- TriggerActivates on a 200-day trend break confirmed by credit, or a fast drawdown + volatility spike
Specification
| Ticker | UNW |
| Asset class | US equities & listed options |
| Universe | Megacap AI-chip & hyperscaler complex |
| Expression | Defined-risk put structures, trigger-gated |
| Profile | Tail-convexity / crash hedge — bounded carry |
| Tested | 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2000–02 dot-com |
| Status | Flagship · methodology available to license |
Evidence
UNW was stress-tested against every major drawdown of the last 25 years, including the 2000–02 dot-com bust — the regime it is built for. The trigger keeps the position flat through manias, and the defined-risk structure bounds the cost of waiting.
License or track UNW.
Methodology, constituents, and the full backtest are available to allocators, desks & venues.